Thoughts on the Tampa Bay Lightning Offseason

This offseason seemed like a critical one for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Despite finishing the year on a convincing hot streak, the spark ran out, and they bowed out in the 1st round against the in-state rival Florida Panthers, who would win the Stanley Cup. After a 2nd year of 1-and-done playoff eliminations, the Lightning seemed like they had a major choice in the offseason. With guys like Steven Stamkos testing the open market, Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov becoming UFAs in the coming years, and the depth vanishing to other teams, general manager Julian Brisbois had to act smartly if he wanted to keep the flames of contention alive. A total rebuild seemed out of the question: thanks to trades for Brandon Hagel and Tanner Jeannot, the Lightning didn’t have their 1st frm this year, nor do they have their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounders for next year. Despite still having $5.7 million in cap space, let’s see how their offseason has panned out so far.

Ryan McDonagh acquired from the Predators for a 2025 2nd

This was made way before the offseason even started. On May 21st, JBB pulled the trigger on a deal that sent 35-year-old defenseman Ryan McDonagh back to the place he won two Stanley Cups, along with a 4th round pick. In exchange, he traded a 2025 2nd and 2024 7th rounder. I had a little bit different opinion on this before the offseason transpired. I figured he’d be an excellent 2nd-pairing defenseman with Erik Cernak. Tampa Bay needed defensive help desperately, especially after Mikhail Sergachev went down with injury for most of the year and didn’t look like himself when he returned. Despite his $6.75MM cap hit, he was still one of the best defenders for Nashville last year, acquiring a +/- rating of 19 last year and an expected +/- of 10.7, for those of you that know advanced analytics. Now that he’s a 1st-pairing defenseman, I’m not so sure, but still some much-needed defenseman help, even at his advanced age.

Mikhail Sergachev traded to Utah Hockey Club

This was where I started to question the direction the Lightning were going. In lieu of trying to save cap space to retain their captain (or so we all thought), the Lightning traded one of their best defensemen (at 25 years old), albeit for a very nice return. Conor Geekie was a former 11th overall pick from the former Arizona Coyotes in 2022, showing nothing short of dominance in the WHL before getting drafted with 99 points in 55 games. J.J. Moser has been a solid, albeit less defensive, second-pairing defenseman for the Coyotes, racking up 26 points in 80 games. The Lightning also acquired  a 2nd-round pick and more than $5.3MM from taking his contract off the books. Even then, I have mixed feelings about this trade. I didn’t think that by acquiring Ryan McDonagh, the Lightning were replacing Sergachev. Even if the Lightning needed the cap space, they lose an elite defenseman who’s still in his mid-20s and could round back to form from injury. I like the prospects and picks, but I’m less sure about this one.

Lightning trade Tanner Jeannot to the Kings for 2 picks

This trade all but confirmed the Jeannot trade was an absolute failure and one of JBB’s most questionable moments as GM of the Lightning. In the spirit of dumping cap, the Lightning parted ways with Jeannot, shipping off to the Los Angeles Kings for pick no. 115 in 2024 and L.A.’s 2nd rounder in 2025. Once again, a nice return, especially for a guy they were looking to get rid of anyway: it saved the team $2.665MM. Even then, it confirmed that the trade for Jeannot during the 2023 trade deadline was a mistake. He looked good enough in Nashville, scoring 24 goals and 41 points as a rookie big-bruising forward for the Preds. He looked so good that Tampa gave up Cal Foote, a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in exchange for him. They only recouped half of that for him after a year and a half, but at least they got some positive value for him instead of simply buying him out. Let’s see if they eventually do the same for Conor Sheary.

Lightning trade for Jake Guentzel signing rights, sign him to a 7x$9MM contract

This move had me feeling so many emotions, but overall, I was ecstatic over this. I really thought the Lightning were going to use the cap space to resign their captain Steven Stamkos, but JBB had his own master plan. Jake Guentzel was going to be arguably the best free agent available. After glued onto a line with Sidney Crosby for his entire career, he finally showed the hockey world he’s a true superstar after a deadline trade to Carolina. He put up 12 goals and 34 points in only 33 games for the Canes, including the playoffs. Tampa Bay had their eyes set on him instead of captain Stam and fired their shot, sending a 2025 3rd rounder for the rights to sign him, which they did for a 7x9 contract. I love this move for the Lightning. Stamkos would’ve been great to resign, but he’s in his mid-30s and has significant risks of declining as opposed to Guentzel, who won’t enter his 30s until the season starts. He also doesn’t rely too much on the powerplay either, as he only had 15 on the season. That’ll definitely improve with how deadly Tampa’s is, though. Stamkos’ ability to play center will be missed, but I love this move. It reminds me of the Freddie Freeman debacle with the Dodgers, except I believe this will work out for the Lightning more.

Victor Hedman signed to a 4x$8MM extension; will start in 2025-26

The Lightning wanted to make sure defenseman Victor Hedman didn’t experience the same fate as Stamkos, so they locked up their star of the blue line to a 4-year, $8 million extension kicking in next year. Again, with this one, I’m a little unsure about it on the back end (of the deal). Hedman is going to be 38 by the time his contract expires. Not to mention, he showed some decline in 2022-23, only racking up 49 points in 76 games. Even then, he’s shown that might be more of a blip, as he rebounded to form last year with nearly a point per game and a rating of +18. He’s also been super durable, never missing over 6 games in any season in his 30s. I don’t know how this will fare in the long run, but if Ryan McDonagh is an example, he doesn’t have to be as offensively driven for this deal to pan out. This contract is the same length and term as Stamkos contract in Nashville, but with the Lightning’s defense the way it is, this seemed necessary.

Lightning sign Zemgus Grigensons to 3-year deal, Cam Atkinson to prove-it deal

This one will be relatively quick. Grigensons, a Buffalo NHL-lifer, was nabbed by Tampa Bay on a 3-year, $2.55MM deal to play on the 4th line at minimum and potentially provide some depth scoring. It’s been long since he’s been a middle-6 worthy forward, and he’s coming off a down year, only scoring 8 goals and 14 points in 63 games. Regardless, he’ll be looking to achieve some of his old form. If he flames out all the way to the minors, he won’t count on the Tampa Bay payroll.

Atkinson was also once a quality scorer, even scoring 23 goals and 50 points just two years ago. Unfortunately, his last year showed significant decline, scoring just 28 points in 70 games, leading him to be bought out of his contract by the Flyers. At 35, this signing seems more like a lottery ticket to see if he recovers some of his old form back, as the Lightning signed him to a 1-year, $900K contract. He looks to be slotted into the teams middle-6 with Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel if he impresses. At this point, they’ll need anything to replace the depth scoring lost by Stamkos and Anthony Duclair from last year.

            This offseason will no doubt be one Tampa fans remember for a while. However, I’m less than sure if that will be for a good reason or not. I have questions about their defense, which has gotten older, and despite a potential upgrade from Stamkos to Guentzel, I still have questions on the depth scoring. Backup goaltender still needs to be resolved, although with how weak the goaltender class is, I guess you can wait until later to resolve that one. I have doubts about if we got better or worse, but it seems like the Lightning are still on track to be a 1st-round-exit at minimum next season.