Checking in On Some NFL Free Agents

Photo per USA Today

We’re at the point of training camp starting for every NFL team, with the preseason starting in a month. With the camp battles and roster bubbles bursting, there are still some quality NFL free agents that could make things interesting for some teams to pick up.

Michael Thomas

            Half a decade ago, it would’ve been unfathomable to see Michael Thomas in this state. Thomas became one of the most reliable short-game receivers thanks to Drew Brees’ declining arm strength, Sean Payton’s offensive play-style, and his own abilities. Through 2016-19, he was one of the top receivers in the league, racking up 5,512 yards (2nd most) and 32 touchdowns (6th most) on 470 receptions (most), earning 2 All-Pro spots, 3 Pro Bowls, and the 2019 Offensive Player of the Year. Ever since 2020, though, he’s failed to live up to that form: nagging ankle and foot injuries have limited him to only 20 games through the last 4 years, including missing all of 2021. Even in 2023, where expectations were relatively high for him to return to form, he was quite meager, racking up 448 yards and a touchdown on 39 receptions, with his lowest catch rate and yards/game in his career. With the massive buyout of his deal from the Saints, Thomas could be content with signing a prove-it deal with a team in need of a short threat. Even at 31 years old, he should still have a place in this league, maybe even as a veteran teaching younger guys about his footwork and burst on the line. There hasn’t been any buzz on the wide receiver market since the Dolphins and Titans signed Odell Beckham Jr. and Tyler Boyd, both presumably taking over as their teams’ WR3. Even still, there are teams that can absolutely use his services. According to BetOnline, the Cowboys have the best odds at signing Michael Thomas. He would, of course, be more as a WR3 with stud CeeDee Lamb and deep threat Brandin Cooks probably higher on the food chain, but his slot-style playmaking will serve well to complement the Cowboys receiving core. The Bills are 2nd highest, and that could theoretically be a better play for his volume, as third-year Khalil Shakir, free agent signing Curtis Samuel, and 2nd-round rookie Keon Coleman are rather unproven, at least compared to Thomas. Other teams in the top 5 are the Ravens, Broncos, and Chiefs. The Broncos are an interesting team to look out for; Thomas had his best seasons with Sean Payton as his coach and Pete Carmichael as his OC. It may take until the preseason starts, though.

David Bakhtiari

            Bakhtiari has a similar story to Thomas: After some solid seasons in 2013-15 for the Packers, Bakhtiari emerged as one of the best left tackles from 2016-2020, racking up two Pro-Bowls and five All-Pro teams. Throughout that 5-year span, he allowed only 8 sacks, the least amount by any offensive lineman. This earned him a 4-year, $92MM contract, the most in terms of AAV for any offensive lineman ever (until Trent Williams broke it by $10,000 per year). Like Thomas, injuries have beaten away at his great form; he’s only played 13 games since 2021. A torn ACL at the end of the 2020 season sidelined him for all but 1 game in 2021. 2022 saw him relatively healthy, but a massive knee injury in Week 1 sidelined him for the rest of the 2023 season. The Packers chose to cut him before the offseason started, saving them $21MM. Bakhtiari still has a desire to play next season and, according to Ben Levine of profootballrumors.com, is set to return for the 2024 season. No one has yet to offer him a contract or to meet with him yet, but according to betonline.ag, the rival Chicago Bears have the highest odds of signing him. The Bears currently have Braxton Jones and former no. 10 pick Darnell Wright manning both tackle spots. Wright probably won’t lose his job, and with Jones’ strong showing last year (he boasted a 75.4 PFF grade), I doubt he’d lose his job, but Bakhtiari could serve as depth if one of them go down, or even as a mentor for Wright. He could serve as more for the Chiefs, who are 2nd on the betting odds. It depends where they put tackles Lucas Niang and Jawaan Taylor, but Bakhtiari could absolutely threaten Nieng, who is a UFA after this season. Of course, before the offseason started, the Jets seemed like a logical place for him to go, with their offensive line holes and the appeal of a reunion with Aaron Rodgers, but with their signings of Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, along with the drafting of Penn-State lineman Olu Fashanu with pick no. 11, that seems like a lost cause.

Connor Williams

            Unlike both Thomas and Bakhtiari, injury prone vets looking for a prove-it deal to get back to old form, Connor Williams has been relatively spared by the football gods, but he has yet to be picked up by a team. He’s not as big of a name as Bahktiari, but he could be considered as one of the more underrated lineman, only allowing 2 sacks and 12 pressures while sporting an 86.5 PFF grade from this past season, the 2nd best among centers. That’s not to say he's been spared from injury entirely: in 2023, he suffered a groin injury in Week 3 and a season-ending ACL tear in Week 14. Perhaps the ACL recovery has been what’s kept teams from signing the 27-year-old, as he’s projected to miss a big part of the 2024 season. Regardless, he’s still drawn plenty of interest from clubs, according to his agent Drew Rosenhaus. There’s no doubt a team would benefit from his prestige and his flexibility (he’s played both guard sides and center), but ACL tears could take until December to heal fully, so until the recovery timetable comes out, it’s likely a tangible offer may not come yet. If it’s revealed he can be back by the 1st quarter of the season, or even the middle of the season, I see teams like the Cowboys or Bears as logical spots for him. The Bears are even more hollow at guard than they are at tackle, with Nate Davis and 3rd rounder Kiram Amegadjie competing for the right guard spot.

Xavien Howard

            Howard is another former Dolphin still available for teams to sign. They will be looking for his form in 2020 and 2021, where he racked up 15 INTs and an insane 36 passes deflected, only allowing QBs a 59.06 passer rating when targeting receivers he was covering. 2022 was a down season for him, especially 2022, where he allowed a 101.2 passer rating while grading poorly on PFF with a 55.2. 2023 was better for him, but he didn’t reach his elite form in 2020 and 2021, giving the Dolphins the impetus to cut Xavien Howard 2 years into his 5-year/$90MM deal. He was looking to sign with a team to be their top corner, even proclaiming his interest in the Texans. However, legal issues have sparked up for him, as he was named in a civil suit filed in Broward County, Florida over sending photos and videos of sexual acts from women without their consent. As such, he has yet to receive an offer from any team, and I doubt he does until the suit gets resolved or dropped. Even then, this has been one of several criminal and civil cases involving him. Teams like Houston or Dallas would be good landing spots for him, but they’d have to overlook a ton of off-the-field issues, which is becoming harder to do.

Stephon Gilmore

            Gilmore has been more known as a journeyman in recent years. His 4-year stay with the Patriots from 2017-2020 created his legacy with three Pro-Bowls, two 1st-Team All-Pro selections, and the Defensive Player of the Year in 2019 (what happened?). Ever since, he’s had one-year pitstops with Carolina, Indianapolis, and Dallas, where he would remain effective in press and man coverage, but would show his weaknesses in zone coverage, with a 50.9 PFF grade. Originally, it looked like there was a deal in place to sign Gilmore after the draft, but a report from Joe Person of the Athletic has since denied that rumor, with him stating there’s been “no movement” between the two. Even with his deficiencies, he has an advantage over almost all of the names mentioned above: he’s had no injuries the past 2 seasons, with over 1,000 defensive snaps logged in each season. A reunion with the Cowboys wouldn’t be out of the question; he was much needed depth when Trevon Diggs went down with injury. He’s stated that he’s open to a reunion with the Patriots, and they could very well use him to mentor Christian Gonzalez while handling slot-corner or perimeter opportunities. However, I think the Lions would be a fun spot for him to go to. With the release of Cameron Sutton, the Lions now have a hole to fill on their secondary, and Gilmore can absolutely fill that, even if he’s never had any past experience in Aaron Glenn’s scheme. PFF seems to agree with this pick, too.

Justin Simmons

            This leads us with the last, and potentially the most effective, name on this list: Justin Simmons. The Denver Bronco lifer has been a perennial All-Pro talent since 2019, earning 2 Pro-Bowls and 4 2nd-Team All-Pros. While he has declined from his 90.7 PFF grade in 2019 to a 67.9 PFF grade, but his 82.3 coverage grade still marks him among the top-15 safeties in the league. He was cut from the Broncos to signify a rebuild and to create cap space following the massive Russell Wilson dead cap hit. He isn’t the only quality safety remaining, but he’s the most marquee name of the bunch. Teams like Houston and San Francisco have been mentioned as fits by si.com’s Albert Breer, but I think Philadelphia stands out as the most logical fit for him. With Vic Fangio taking over defensive play-calling duties, Justin Simmons can do wonders for his former defensive coordinator with his ranginess and eye for the ball. Once again, PFF seems to agree.