Extension Candidate: Budda Baker

The Arizona Cardinals had one of the worst defenses in the league last season, ranking 2nd last in scoring defense with the 3rd worst passing defense and the worst rushing defense in yards/attempt, and they were only successful once in preventing a team from scoring 15 points. Despite the awful defense, there was one bright spot that emerged from the rough season a Pro-Bowler: Budda Baker.

Looking at his track record, it’s not surprising. Ever since earning a Pro-Bowl and 1st Team All-Pro during his rookie season in 2017 (due to special-team work), he has evolved into one of the most effective run-stopping, hard-hitting safeties. He’s amassed 737 tackles, 37 tackles for loss, and even 15 QB hits, placing him 8th among all safeties. His run-stopping grade of 89.7 is also 9th among safeties. He has been less elite in coverage, only averaging a grade of 69.4 in that regard (70 and above is considered above average), but he’s improved tremendously since 2019, never having a grade below 70 since.

2023 was a bit of a dropoff, though. Under new head coach Jonathan Gannon, his grade in pass-coverage and run-stoppage grades declined, with his 67.5 run-stoppage mark being the lowest in his career. Even still, with the rest of the defense performing as inadequately as they did, plus the scheme change, plus a hamstring injury that sidelined him for 5 games, it was still a solid season for him all things considered.

His four-year, $59MM extension back in 2020 is set to expire this year, and with the $98MM the Cardinals are projected to have next year, there will be plenty of cap room to sign him plus other impact talent for a team that could be up-and-coming next year. It wasn’t looking so optimistic last year: Budda Baker requested a trade in the 2023 offseason, but he and the team were able to hash things out after the Cards made his entire salary guaranteed in 2023. More than a year later, and Baker has professed his desire for staying in the desert, and I believe the Cardinals oblige his request.

There’s also the question of how much he’ll earn from the new deal. His last contract was the richest deal given out to a safety at the time. Even with the many safety contracts given out over the years, his AAV still sits at 6th among them, with the top earner on the safety market being Xavier McKinney. I think he tries to go for the top spot again in early parts of the negotiations, and the Cardinals not having a ton of impact free agents to bring back in the next two years; just James Conner, Jonah Williams, Zaven Collins, Jalen Thompson, and Trey McBride, and Baker seems to be more valuable than all of them right now. If the Cardinals wanted to negotiate a better price for him, I’d look at the contract former Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu got from the Chiefs. Mathieu and Baker have been compared to each other in the past due to their play styles, and Baker’s about a year older than Mathieu was when signing the contract. Mathieu’s contract went for 3 years carrying a $14 million AAV, but his contract made up 7.43% of the 2019 cap space. That would be $20 million a year in AAV for Baker, the 2nd most out of any safety currently. Of course, with Jevon Holland looking for his first massive contract, it could be a little more pricey for the Cardinals to retain Baker, but considering both sides are amicable with each other after some trials and tribulations, it seems like a matter of when instead of if this will happen.